Ong Kian Min (Tampines GRC) argued in Parliament for the CPF to become a pension/investment fund in Parliament. His intentions are good, but it’s a really bad idea.

While CPF returns are quite low compared to other forms of long term investment instruments (2.5% OA and 4% SA), at least it represents a stable form of investment for most Singaporeans. The risk involved in parking one’s retirement nest egg in CPF is probably as low as parking money in a fixed deposit. It’s perhaps the most risk-free option compared to things like stocks, unit trusts, investment funds etc.

While Ong Kian Min is correct to say that high net worth individuals will not be satisfied with such levels of returns, I think we ought to think about whether low net worth individuals are willing to accept the risks involved in the CPF becoming an investment fund. True, the returns would be higher if the CPF becomes an investment fund, but the risk of losses for all Singaporeans becomes higher too. I believe that Singaporeans are too risk averse for the CPF to become an investment fund.

The government cannot guarantee 8 – 10% returns because it’s too expensive a business. And, it will be a huge political mess if CPF as an investment fund make negative returns. Singaporeans will surely bay for the blood of the government. I don’t think that it is wise for the government to take such a risk. If the individual buys into an investment fund using the CPF OA and loses money, he has no one else to blame but himself. If the government invests the entire CPF account of Singaporeans and loses money, it will have to bear the responsibility of the loss and the political fallout will be incalculable.

If the CPF is to transform itself into something greater than a POSB, I rather it become a comprehensive and trusted source of financial advice from independent financial advisors. The idea is that the CPF Board offer personal financial health assessments, investment advice, insurance advice etc. The CPF board therefore becomes a competitor with the private sector, with the only difference being that the CPF board is not selling financial products and offering financial advice at the same time. The CPF Board would not have the vested interest of pushing sales, so it can dispense more reliable advice to Singaporeans. This can only be good for Singaporeans in general because the private sector financial advisors would have to shape up their services, else they will lose customers to the CPF Board. The idea is somewhat similar to how the government forced the ISPs to improve their offerings through Wireless@SG.

By offering only independent advice and not getting into the actual business of investing CPF funds, the government can help Singaporeans try and achieve a higher return on their CPF and private savings without running the risk of being blamed for any losses in investment. True, some people may argue that if the CPF Board dispenses bad advice, people can still point fingers. However, all the adviser needs to do is to make clear that there is no compulsion to follow the advice, and suggest people to seek second opinions from private sector advisers if they are not sure if sound advice was given. It’s definitely better than trying to directly invest CPF monies of ordinary Singaporeans. It’s not easy to beat the market all the time, so better not take such a big risk.