Comments, opinions and an occasional ramble
Sensible letter in ST forum
Mr Chua Soon Hock’s advice published in the ST today couldn’t have come at a better time. The stock market is hitting all-time highs, and the property market is enjoying it’s strongest bull run in ages. Like Mr Chua, I think it is not the time to be entering the market at all. Now that we have a tight labour market, I think it’s wiser to find a good paying job and earn as much as possible.
I suspect a crash would be coming along in a year or two, so it is definitely good to have some liquidity to snap up bargain stocks or property then. I’m planning to save up as much as I can before the Great Singapore Sale arrives on the SGX and property market. I think Mr Wang too has opined a couple of months back that it’s time to get out of the markets.
I think investors should help caution one another now because the markets are really getting red hot. I still remember how terrible the dot com bubble was for some of my relatives. Even today, some of them are still paying the price for entering the market just before it crashed. Of course, no one can predict with complete accuracy when the markets will crash. It’s always a judgment call best made by individuals. However, just like the weather, when there are signs such as dark clouds and strong winds, it would be wiser to carry an umbrella out.
As the saying goes, the smart person learns from the experience of others. The average person learns from his own experience. The fool never learns at all. 
| Print article | This entry was posted by Aaron Ng on 06/07/2007 at 2:46 pm, and is filed under Others, Perspective. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback from your own site. |
about 3 years ago
Is worrying about the impending stock market crash becoming FASHIONANLE?
Being a contrarian investor, I try to move away from the crowd and conventional wisdom of the day.
My main argument against a market crash is:
1. Many warnings have been issued. My aunty, uncle, father etc all think the market is TOO HIGH.
.
2. There seems to be a good memory of lessons learnt and people are “determined not to repeat their mistakes”. This means irrational exuberance has not crept into the market.
.
3. The market is efficient. No one can predict where the peak is. Even if you believe the market will crash, when and how is difficult to pinpoint. Also, looking at how the markets moved I suspect investors are have not gone “overboard” or over exuberant. For example, the entire electronic sector remains depressed – INTEL for example hardly moved.
.
4. Even the Chinese market which people say have gone beserk…yes it is clearly overvalued but a P/E of 44 relative to growth of 100% in earnings just need a year to get reasonable in valuation….
.
Of course I’m not saying the market CANNOT crash and I’m constantly watching out for signs and trouble ahead. In fact I thought it was going to end of last year and beginning of this year, I hedge my entire stock portfolio by spending $60K on PUTS ….it was a costly hedge.
.
Too many people are saying the market will crash even young people like yourself. My broker even advised me to “please sell some, come back and fight another day”. I may be wrong but I believe it won’t and if like you say, it might crash in 2008, why sell so early?….
Markets crash when doomsayers (except the permanent ones like Marc Faber) give up saying it will crash, and people who sold too early comes back to buy….
about 3 years ago
I already got out and got in again. Currently:
I am out of China;
getting out of S’pore;
underweight India;
have not been near US equities for a long time;
I like Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Europe, global healthcare;
higher allocation than usual to cash;
zero in Japan (don’t really understand this market);
some exposure to commodities;
too late for me to get into Australia;
holding some bonds as always for diversification
about 3 years ago
Actually, it depends on what ur objective is. If you are going for long term, it wont hurt to invest in some funds and some strong stocks. I opine that the key is the length of time you spend in the market and not the time you enter the market. But i could be wrong.
about 3 years ago
Mr. Wang,
Tech companies have gone off the radar except for a few hot ones RIMM, AAPL. Many have been neglected.
I did a pipeline scan of tech companies to see which has the most potentially promising products to be launched in the coming months and came up with one name – SUN MICROSYSTEM (SUNW). …an forgotten oldie. ..
I’m also buying a few promising companies with good balance sheet- HRAY, NINE, GIGA.
I believe there a many gems in the tech sector listed on Nasdaq.
about 3 years ago
Aaron – your POLL:
:::Is the Singapore government afraid of its people?
Yes. This is why they choose to give VAGUE replies to questions. (55%):::
.
Just met my MP. Incredible, he answered every specific question with generic answers.
.
There was one guy who asked what is the govt going to do about foreign nationals who are given grants to study in Singapore then avoid the 3 year bond to work in singapore by simply declaring they can’t find jobs for 6 months. This feller was VERY specific and wanted to alert the govt on this loophole.
.
The MP said : We must be outward looking and not inward looking. We have to try to emulate great cities like NY & London and avoid being old and hence backward.
.
I had a shot with my question on means testing (how to take care of BIG hospital bill within such a system).
.
But got a totally generic answer that means testing is meant to make the system more equitable and we have medicare, medishield and medifund. (yes …minister but how to pay if my bill is $500,000?).
.
One teenager said that he is worried about unfiltered information from blogs influencing his peers causing them to disagree with the PAP govt. I think he might be talking about your blog. The MP gave the best answer to this question, he said censoring the internet might worst. I wanted to recommend the boy be sent to N. Korea but the woman next to me restrained me.
.
Other questions was about the bus and traffic jam which elicited more generic answers.
.
I decided NOT to ask the question on defense spending level because I guess the MP will just say “defense is very important we cannot afford to be complacent, defense spending is important to bring about confidence and security to our country”. See…I also can generate all the replies.
.
Overall when I walked out I chatted with some of the people and many felt almost all questions were unanswered….except the one by the boy who wanted govt filtered information so that his mind won’t be corrupted by blogs like yours.
.
So much for meeting MPs to get answers and discussion.