The recent annoucement by transport minister Raymond Lim regarding public bus reforms is certainly welcome, and it’s long overdue. I won’t discuss about the reforms because I believe that most of it are in the right direction in making public transport an effective alternative to private cars.

However, there’s a wildcard in the proposed reforms, and that is the Public Transportation Council (PTC). Sure, the LTA can do centralised planning of bus routes and service frequency can be increased but the question is, at what cost?

Currently, route planning and service frequency are done by the two bus companies and their planning is based on commercial considerations more than anything else. With centralised planning and higher frequency standards to meet, the bottomline of bus companies will definitely be affected. And, they will definitely apply for fare increases to cover the shortfall. After all, these are profit seeking companies, not charities. Will the cost of public transport increase as a result of these radical reforms?

While the proposed changes in bus services are certainly commendable, Singaporeans will not benefit much if the cost of taking a public bus goes up significantly as a result. While some may argue that having more bus operators entering the market will drive costs down by increasing competition, this scenario is unlikely to play out unless two or more companies are serving every bus route. What are the chances of this scenario occuring under a centralised planning model?

Ultimately, whether Singaporeans get bus services that are a viable alternative to private cars is still dependent on the PTC. This doesn’t mean that the PTC should freeze fare increases. It just means that the PTC has to figure out what exactly is the optimum cost-benefit ratio such that Singaporeans will be willing to trade their cars for public transport. And, I don’t envy this job.